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Intelligence101 is the global leader in the provision of online Intelligence Training. Learn how to turn Information into Insights today.

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Intelligence Failures: 3 Reasons How (and Why) Intelligence F#$K-ups Occur

By Ben Stark on May 9, 2020 0

Intelligence Failures

Intelligence Failures occur for three reasons –

1. Failure to process and analyse information correctly.

2. Failure to disseminate and share information.

3. Failure to act on intelligence.

Read these real-life case studies, understand intelligence failures, avoid the same mistakes.

CASE STUDY: Curveball (The Source Who Lied)

CASE STUDY: Curveball (The Source Who Lied)

Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi (aka Curveball) provided false and misleading information on Iraq’s production of biological and WMDs.

During the lead up to Operation Iraqi Freedom, Curveball made false claims about Saddam Hussain’s mobile weapons laboratories.

His falsified information was used as rationale for the military intervention into Iraq.

Interestingly, German Intelligence Service and the British Secret Intelligence Service questioned the authenticity of the claims.

They doubted his reliability due to inconsistencies with his testimony.

However, Curveball’s ‘information’ ultimately made its way to the White House and influenced President George Bush to invade Iraq in 2001.

Years later, Curveball’s information was proven to be falsified.

Lesson: Trusting Curveballs’ information was a critical intelligence failure to accurately evaluate the source and reliability of the information.

Notable Intelligence Failures

Operation Barbarossa (1941) – Stalin ignores Intelligence warnings that the Germans were preparing a surprise attack against Russia.

Singapore, 1942 – British Intelligence believed the Japanese wouldn’t use tanks in the jungle…Next minute, everyone is eating Raman.

Yom Kippur, 1973. Israel dismissed Intelligence indicating Egypt were planning an offensive.

[su_youtube url=”https://youtu.be/Y4z2SD3iAEk”]

The Falkland Islands, 1982. British Intelligence didn’t think the Argentinians would launch an assault to recapture the Falklands…

Falkland Islands WAr
Falkland Islands War – Summarised

Pearl Harbor (1941). Americans were caught by surprise when the Japanese bombed the Navy base Pearl Harbor in 1941.

So How (and Why) Do Intelligence Failures Occur?

There’s a bunch of theory on this topic. But I’ve distilled Intelligence Failures down to the following three reasons:

  • Failure to process and analyse information correctly.
  • Failure to disseminate and share information.
  • Failure to act on intelligence.

#1. Failure to Process and Analyse Information

More often than not, Intelligence failures occur from an inability to process intelligence accurately!

Why?

  • Selective Information. Sometimes analysts refuse to accept information that contradicts preconceived opinions,  disregarding information that doesn’t fit a preferred narrative. This is the cardinal sin of Intelligence.
  • Denial or Avoidance. Sometimes analysts refuse to deal with unpleasant facts either by denying their existence or avoiding action needed to deal with it.
  • Groupthink. Sometimes, Often Intelligence Analysts accept the opinions of others (usually superiors) without checking assumptions are correct first.
  • Selective Vision. Trying to make a situation fit a preconceived conclusion.
  • One Track Mind. Refusal to recognise any need for new thinking. People tend to find it difficult to reverse a decision once its made (even if it was a mistake).
  • Over Complicating Matters. Ignoring the simplest explanation or solution in favour of an overly complex or less likely one. Tip. Remember Occam’s Razor!
  • Not My Idea. Stupid as it sounds, I’ve seen analysts dismiss an idea just because someone else thought of it.

Why do intelligence failures happen

99 Problems but collection aint’ one

Today I would say Intelligence collection is not an issue – We literally have the world’s information at our fingertips.

In fact, we have more information than we know what to do with.

This creates its own problems for Intelligence Analysts…

#2. Failure to Disseminate and Share Information

If Intelligence exists to provide an advantage over our adversary; what’s the point of having solid Intel if you don’t tell anyone?

You gotta get it out there!

This is the second reason for Intelligence failures. Failure to ship your Intel!

Look, I get it – there’s a fine line between sharing information and keeping secrets right…

Need to Know Vs. Need to Share.

Too much sharing and nothing remains secret.

Too many secrets and you wake up to a Japanese aerial raid.

So, when it comes to intelligence, there needs to be a balance.

Knowledge is power, and people like to hoard their information –

Individual analysts like to be the ones with the info. It makes them feel indispensable.

Similarly, Intelligence organisations, aren’t much better. Intelligence agencies will often hoard information to appear more effective (and protect their operational budgets).

Problem: Keep too many secrets, people die. 🙁

Fix: Foster a culture of information sharing and declassifying information for wider dissemination. 😀

Or don’t. Whatever.

Intelligence Failures Explained

#3. Failure to Act.

The third cause for Intelligence Failures is a failure to act on Intelligence provided.

My definition of intelligence is ‘processed information for action’ and so if no action is taken from your intel, there’s literally no reason for it to exist.

If policymakers act independently of intelligence advice, and the operations team plan in isolation you’ll end up with an intelligence failure.

Prior to Operation Barbarosa (1941) Stalin chose to be his own Intelligence Analyst and ignored the warnings that Hitlers Nazi’s were planning an invasion into the USSR.

Intel failures

Super Valid Point. When I say ‘failure to act’, I’m saying intelligence failures occur when intelligence is ignored. Choosing to do nothing is fine because it’s a choice.

Self-Interest

People often put their own self-interest ahead of making a tough call or putting their neck on the line.

It’s often easier to hide behind average intelligence rather than actually making the call.

Call to action[able] Intelligence

Let this lesson into Intelligence Failures be a straight-up call to action for Intelligence professionals; if your advice isn’t actionable, what’s the point? 

Intelligence Failures

Activity –

Can you think of any other historical Intelligence Failures? Share with the group below! Determine the issue, and post it in the comments below.

From Information to Intelligence

Intelligence101 Foundation Training Online Intelligence Course

Would you like to:

  • Develop a comprehensive knowledge of the Intelligence Cycle and the Foundations of Intelligence Analysis?
  • Learn how to make Intelligence collection plans and write Intelligence Briefs?
  • Understand Intelligence Collection methods including HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, GEOINT, and OSINT?
  • Compile Strategic Analysis and deliver Oral Briefings?
  • Apply your Intelligence training to different roles and environments including Law Enforcement, Military, Counter-terrorism?
  • Develop your critical thinking and learnt to use various analytical methods?
  • Understand the impact of Intelligence in multi-disciplinary roles?
  • Then join us in our interactive Intelligence Training Course today.

“I Need You To Tell Me What’s Going On Here”: Analyse the Situation and Provide a Quick Assessment

By Ben Stark on May 1, 2020 0

Criminal Intelligence Analysis Scenario - Free Online Intelligence Training

Your Director Needs A Quick Assessment Before Her 9am Meeting –

Situation: You are a Criminal Intelligence Analyst working in the Avon and Somerset Police, located in Bristol UK.

Free Intelligence Training Scenario

You’ve been assigned to the Criminal Intelligence Branch (C.I.B) – with an operational focus on Organised Crime in Bristol, UK.

It’s 8:05am and you’ve just arrived in the office carrying a fresh coffee and toasted ham and cheese croissant.

But before you get to put the flaky-pastry to your mouth, the C.I.B Director needs to see you in her office…

…you take a quick swig of your coffee, grab your notebook and pen and head in.

“I need you to tell me what’s going on here”

She hands you a file containing a mix-mash of Police reporting, and tells you she needs a quick assessment before her meeting with the Commissioner at 9am.

This Criminal Group are up to something, and we need to know what it is –

I need you to read into the problem and provide me a quick summary.

Now to get down to business…. (click image for PDF Scenario).

Crimson Tide Criminal Intelligence File

Analyse the Crimson Tide Organised Criminal Syndicate

  • You have less than 1 hour to read the available information and provide a quick assessment to the chief.
  • She needs to know the bottom line up front – what are they doing in Bristol?
  • Provide her a summary she can take to the Commissioner
  • Put your response in the comments below.
  • Provide her with a summary of the reporting and assessment of what you think is going on.
  • Make a recommendation for further Intelligence Collection

Task

Review the information and using the comments section below, provide an quick assessment to inform your Director what is going on?

Rules

  • This is a made-up scenario for exercise purposes only.
  • Use what you’ve been given – there’s enough to go off.
  • Feel free to ask questions, put in collection requests and post images including link diagrams, timelines etc.
  • The information is in no particular order.
  • Let me know if you have any issues – post in the comments or email me ben@intelligence101.com

Do you speak Spanish? Our Intelligence Training Scenario has been translated by our friends over at AETAD for our Spanish audience Check it out here – Escenario de Crimson Tide Intelligence (traducción al español).

Also, we know it’s not easy to find real-world Intelligence examples online. That’s why we develop these free scenarios – to help you think critically. So if you want to step up your intel game, check out our (inexpensive) online intelligence training today. It’s packed full of real life examples.

S.A.L.U.T.E. Reports; Use this simple (and effective) technique when discussing the enemy or threat

By Ben Stark on March 6, 2020 3

SALUTE REPORTS - Intelligence Reports

SALUTE Reports allow Intelligence Analysts to quickly assess important aspects of an enemy force.

[Read more…] about S.A.L.U.T.E. Reports; Use this simple (and effective) technique when discussing the enemy or threat

Intelligence Training Scenario – Test Your Analytical Skills Here

By Ben Stark on January 14, 2020 0

Intelligence Training Scenario

I often get asked for scenario and training materials –

So I thought I’d put together the following Intelligence Training Scenario.

Situation

You are a criminal Intelligence Analyst recently recruited to the Ontario Police Force in Canada.

You’ve been assigned to the State Intelligence Branch – with an operational focus on Organised Crime in Toronto.

After your first day at work yesterday, you were pleasantly surprised to have the computer network access you need, and access to all your systems.

Now to get down to business.

Your new boss, an Inspector within the Ontario Police informs you that the District Court is seeking to extradite a prisoner from a Quebec Prison to be sentenced for an assault charge.

He believes there may also be links to organised crime, but doesn’t have the full picture.

He provides you with the file on Hugo DeSilva and asks you to prepare a brief –

The inspector tells you to start by reviewing the documents included in the file.

He informs you that the articles in the brief are open-source news articles (in no particular order) and three Ontario Police Intelligence Reports for context also.

The inspector requests an initial brief by the end of the day –

Hugo DeSilva Intelligence Training

Hugo Kenneth DeSilva – Intelligence Brief 

Task

Review the articles and Police Intelligence reports provided in the brief and using the comments section below, provide an initial assessment to inform the inspector what is going on?

Rules

  • This is a made-up scenario using the articles as training material only.
  • Just use what you’ve been given – there’s plenty to go off.
  • Feel free to ask questions, put in collection requests and post images including link diagrams, timelines etc.
  • The articles are in no particular order.
  • Let me know if you have any issues – post in the comments or email me ben@intelligence101.com

Task – Review the articles and Police Intelligence reports provided in the brief and using the comments section below, provide an initial assessment to inform the inspector what’s going on.

NB: If you want to develop your analytical skills – Check out our Foundation Training Course.

Online Intelligence Training – Learn the Secrets to go from Intelligence Zero to Analyst Hero

By Ben Stark on September 10, 2019

Intelligence101 Foundation Training Online Intelligence Course

Intelligence Analysis is a learned skill.

Where Can You Learn The Skills You Need To Become An Intelligence Analyst?

  • How can you prepare for a unique role working in Intelligence? 
  • Are you looking to become an Intelligence Professional but can’t find solid training or experience?
  • Interested in real-world Intelligence Officer training (without paying too much or enrolling in college)?  

Online Intelligence Course: Foundation Training for Intelligence Analysis

Our Foundations of Intelligence Analysis Course is Unique For 3 Reasons:

1.  You’ll learn how to process information in a way that helps you think outside the box and develop your problem-solving skills.

2. Understand how Intelligence Agencies collect classified information (through HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, OSINT, etc) and turn it into advice for both decision-makers and door kickers alike.

3. Put on your analytical thinking cap by working through a real scenario and applying your Intelligence skills and new Analytical techniques.

Great News for Anyone Wanting a Career in Intelligence!

With more and more information and data available each day – the demand for skilled and qualified Intelligence Analysts has never been higher.

Today, we need people like you to cut through the noise. People who are able to understand issues and problem-solve to make accurate assessments.

Learn how information and fits and build the bigger piece of the puzzle.

Who is this Intelligence Course Designed For?

  • It’s a complete introductory course for anyone interested in pursuing a career in intelligence;
  • A complete explanation of the Intelligence Cycle, turning information into Intelligence;
  • Perfect for people interested in learning how Intelligence is created; 
  • For those looking to master the principals of critical thinking, applying analytical techniques, and making accurate Intelligence Assessments.

We’ve had hundreds complete our course – look what our successful students had to say!

What if you had the skills to turn everyday information into quality intelligence?

Intelligence101 will teach you exactly how Intelligence Analysts collect secrets, collate data and process information to develop timely and accurate Intelligence advice.

Avoid information overload and gain the skills you need to ‘filter the noise’, and provide the ‘so what‘ from your information. 

Our course is designed to take you by the hand and walk you, step-by-step through the Intelligence Cycle.

Online Intelligence Course: Foundation Training for Intelligence Analysis - The Intelligence Cycle

So, who’s this Ben Stark chap? (i.e. the course creator).

Ben is a 10-year veteran of Intelligence with a proven track record of tactical, operational and strategic expertise in Intelligence Analysis.

He’s a graduate of the Australian Army School of Military Intelligence and holds academic qualifications in Criminology, Policing and Criminal Intelligence.

Ben has deployed on multiple overseas missions to the Middle-East providing Intelligence support to conventional troops and elite special forces units. His experience includes Counter-Insurgency, Time-Sensitive-Targeting operations and Counter-Terrorism operations.

Today Ben is a Criminal Intelligence Analyst and contributes to the development of Intelligence Analysis with the Intelligence101 blog and his book, Essential Tradecraft For Intelligence Analysts.

** Ben will also routinely talk about himself in the third person to build credibility and authenticity with his audience. 😛

The Course is hosted on Teachable

The course itself consists of 10 action-packed modules. Everything you need to take you from Intelligence Zero to Analyst Hero.

Lessons have dedicated activities to put skills into use and interact with other students while consolidating lessons learnt.

By the time you finish the Intelligence Course you will:

  • Have a comprehensive knowledge of the Intelligence Cycle and the Foundations of Intelligence Analysis.
  • Be able to undertake Intelligence Inquiry by developing collection plans and writing Intelligence Briefs.
  • Understand Intelligence Collection methods including HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, GEOINT, and OSINT.
  • Compile Strategic Analysis and deliver Oral Briefings.
  • Apply your Intelligence training to different roles and environments including Law Enforcement, Military, Counter-terrorism, & Open-Source Intelligence Investigations (including missing persons).
  • Develop your critical thinking and learnt to use various analytical methods.
  • Understand the impact of Intelligence in multi-disciplinary roles.

Without the course…

You could enrol in a four-year college degree costing thousands of dollars and read those dry-dusty academic textbooks.

You could browse to one of the thousands of government websites and try to extract the lessons from old operations and make sense of the various military pams.

You could subscribe to the Intelligence subreddit and join the online banter without really learning any skills.

Instead, Learn From Someone Who’s Been There & Actually Done It

With a decade of experience and well-over 2000 quality Intelligence assessments I’ve learnt how to make the complex simple. It comes with the territory.

In this course, I distil my experience into ten online modules taking you through the foundations of Intelligence Tradecraft.

Try the Foundation Course for Intelligence Analysis for a full 30-Days, 100% Risk-Free.

Try the entire course. If you don’t LOVE it, I will personally refund 100% of your money back. I’ll even wear the credit-card processing fees.

Let me tell you exactly why I offer this unbeatable guarantee. When I first started learning about Intelligence, I felt overwhelmed.

I read all the books and reams of academic “Intelligence theory” which typically lacked any practical advice or real-life experiences.

I don’t want that for you. I want you to learn everything you need to know to become a successful Intelligence Analyst and apply the lessons straight away.

How do you know if the course is right for you?

  • You always wanted to be an intelligence analyst but you don’t know where to start
  • You always wanted an intelligence career but you don’t know the fundamentals
  • You want to know if you’re prepared enough to enter the intelligence industry

See What Our Successful Intelligence Analysts Are Saying –

Foundation Training for Intelligence Analysis - Intelligence Students

Foundation Training for Intelligence Analysis - Intelligence Students

Foundation Training for Intelligence Analysis - Intelligence Students

Stop suffering from ‘information overload‘ and analysis paralysis. Learn Intelligence property by getting started today ->

In Summary –

Thanks for taking the time to invest in yourself, and for enjoying the Intelligence101 blog.

I’ve loved putting together the course, and the feedback already (after only a short period) has been incredible.

Should you wish to learn more about Intelligence Analysis I really would encourage you to take the course, there’s heaps of great content (plus video and activities also).

If you’ve got any questions, or need any further information – please do not hesitate to email me directly.

I read / respond to every email, and love fielding readers questions.

P.s. If you’ve reached the end of the page and you’re not convinced I can teach you the Art and Science of Intelligence Analysis, it’s all good. There’s plenty of great articles on the blog –

24 Lessons Learned From a Decade of Intelligence: How to create Intelligence that actually matters

Intelligence Target Packs and Intelligence Profiles (Plus Templates You Can Download)

The ULTIMATE Guide to Becoming An Intelligence Officer…(With Frequently Asked Questions)

But if you do think you’ve got what it takes, and you’re keen to take control of your future and your career – then get started with us today!

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  • PSYOPS: The ULTIMATE Guide to Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)
  • Known Unknowns: Unpacking Information Requirements and the Direction phase of the Intelligence Cycle
  • Intelligence Failures: 3 Reasons How (and Why) Intelligence F#$K-ups Occur

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