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PSYOPS: The ULTIMATE Guide to Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)

By Ben Stark on February 19, 2021 0

PSYOPS: The ULTIMATE Guide to Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)

PSYOPS are designed to win ‘hearts and minds’ – all without shooting anyone!

What are Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)?

Psychological Operations (PSYOPS) influence the emotions, motives, and behaviour of governments, groups, organisations or enemies.

How?

PSYOPS are planned and coordinated Intelligence Operations designed to target people’s vulnerabilities to influence them.

Explain it like I’m six… PSYOPS are used to get people to do things or stop doing things. Alright, onwards…

PSYOPS used during Operation Desert Storm

During Operation Desert Storm Coalition forces dropped thousands of leaflets advising the Iraqi forces to surrender or be destroyed by artillery and missiles.

The PSYOPS campaign used images of Iraqi prisoners being treated well and eating bananas which are a highly prized delicacy in Iraq.

Coalition forces were soon overwhelmed by surrendering Iraqi forces looking for safety (and bananas).

The PSYOP campaign was credited with saving thousands of lives and avoided millions of dollars worth of infrastructure from being destroyed.

PSYOPS are Information Operations

Information Operations are conducted at all levels of war, and across the spectrum of conflict.

PSYOPS contribute to mission success by targeting enemy information systems while defending our own.

PSYOPS Along the Korean Demilitarised Zone (DMZ)

Along the DMZ between North and South Korea, the North Koreans built a farming town called “Peace Village” (above) to encourage South Koreans to defect.

Kijong-dong aka ‘Propaganda Village’ designed to attract defectors from South Korea.

On the other side of the DMZ, the South Koreans used giant billboards and loudspeakers to broadcast news to show the North Koreans how attractive life is in the South and contradict the North Korean state-run news.

How do PSYOPS Work?

PSYOPS are used at all levels (strategic, operational and tactical) to influence policy, decisions, command, and the will of the target audience.

PSYOPS targets a groups:

  • will to fight,
  • will to obey, or
  • will to support.

PSYOPS are designed to shape the behaviour that supports national policy objectives and the Commander’s intentions.

Who does PSYOPS?

Most foreign militaries will utilise a PSYOPS as part of their Intelligence Operations to support allies and other government agencies.

In the United States, PSYOPS are assigned to the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM)

PSYOPS teams are usually led by trained Intelligence Officers and consist of a team of analysts or cultural experts.

PSYOPS detachments typically have graphic design, media, and photography skills to support their Intelligence Analysts.

When are PSYOPS Used?

PSYOPS are one of the oldest weapons and proven effective in both combat and peacetime.

PSYOPS are key to shaping the international security environment and reacting to events.

The Russians used information operations to disrupt the 2016 election, and PSYOPS made front-page news when it was used to manipulate votes à la Cambridge Analytica.

PSYOPS are used for:

  • Supporting humanitarian activities,
  • Maintaining or restoring civil order,
  • To portray friendly intent and actions correctly,
  • Counter enemy propaganda, misinformation, disinformation; and
  • Deny the enemy the ability to polarize public opinion against us and our allies.

Could You Recognise Counterpropaganda?

You know that famous Sun Tzu saying about subduing the enemy without fighting…?

Well our opponents have always used information in support of their objectives (and they still are).

Understanding hostile propaganda is important to know how they use PSYOPS.

Here are examples of counterpropaganda:

Disinformation – Is falsified information used to deceive public opinion.

  • Operation INFEKTION was a Soviet KGB disinformation campaign to influence opinion that the U.S. invented AIDS.
  • On 30 Nov 2020, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao posted a fabricated image which portrayed an Australian soldier killing an innocent Afghani child.
Australia labelled the Chinese tweet as ‘disinformation’

Misinformation – Is unintentionally incorrect information to solicit a response or interest.

  • Misinformation is basically ‘fake news’… like that intentionally false click-bait headline by the non-existent Denver Guardian.

Propaganda – Is intentionally incorrect or misleading information to disrupt or influence any sphere of national power—informational, political, military, or economic.

Opposing information – Information coming from anyone that represents an opposing view based upon factual evidence.

Greenpeace design a website to look like Shell and mislead the public.
  • The “Let’s Go Shell” website was designed to look like an official website of the oil company Shell, but was in fact a fake produced by Greenpeace.

PSYOPS in War and Conflict

During war, PSYOPS focuses on supporting offensive and defensive operations by undermining the enemy’s will to fight.

In Offensive Operations PSYOPS brings psychological pressure on hostile forces by persuading civilians to assist the tactical commander.

Or, PSYOPS could be used as a Call to Arms, to garner support, and mobilise troops for the war effort!

In Defensive Operations PSYOPS helps to expose enemy to counterattack.

Source: http://www.psywarrior.com/Herbafghan03.html
  • During Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, PSYOPS handouts and leaflets were designed to encourage local nationals to report on Taliban.

How to Create a PSYOPS Campaign

So, you want to create a PSYOPS campaign huh?

But, where do you start?

Let’s step it out!

Step 1 – Planning and the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace (IPB)

Any PSYOPS operations begins with analysis of the Operating Environment.

In the military, this process is known as the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace (IPB), a detailed study of the environment and enemy.

The IPB process involves a study of the operational area including:

  • Terrain Analysis,
  • Weather Analysis,
  • Key Stakeholders; and
  • Threat evaluation.

This study helps us understand;

  • History of the country, region or people,
  • Natural Environment,
  • Culture,
  • Political System,
  • Political Economy,
  • Military,
  • Ideology,
  • Religion,
  • Foreign Influence,
  • Leadership,
  • Regional Perspectives,
  • National Interests,
  • Ethnicity; and
  • Role of the Media

There’s a bunch of tools used for a detailed IPB (like ASCOPE, Stakeholder Analysis, PMESII etc). For more, do our Online Intelligence Training Course.

ASCOPE/PMESII Analysis is used in PSYOPS to understand the operational environment.

Output of Step 1 – Understand your PSYOPS Audience!

Step 2 – Determine PSYOPS Objectives

PSYOPS Operations need to have specific and measurable outcomes.

Is the PSYOPS goal to reduce acts of violence against friendly forces?

Or, to ease tensions between ethnic groups?

Whatever it is, you need to know what you want ->

Other PSYOPS Objectives:

  • Influence a population to eradicate illicit crops
  • Influencing the enemy to surrender.
  • Influencing the local population to vote in elections.
  • Reducing acts of ethic / tribal violence.
  • Increase local national reporting of enemy locations or mine / IEDs.

US PSYOPS used the famous ‘Total War Speech‘ by German Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels to influence German opinion just as the tide was turning against the Nazi’s.

This famous piece of PSYOPS during WWII offered Germans a choice;

Total war until German manpower and industry is completely destroyed.
Or, “The natural and peaceful development of the German People”

The obvious goal was to sway public opinion away from the Nazi’s and offer the German people a peaceful alternative.

Output of step 2 – A clear objective for your PSYOPS campaign.

Step 3 – PSYOPS Target Vulnerabilities

Here we determine the target audiences’ vulnerability.

Where are they susceptible to influence?

Without identifying vulnerabilities, PSYOPS will have a difficult time influencing the target.

A vulnerability is an unfulfilled or perceived ‘need’.

Remember this: The desire to fulfil, alleviate, or eliminate a need will motivate a target to change their behaviour.

Social scientists have identified there are two types of basic needs;

  • Biological – Those needed to sustain life (food, water, shelter and procreation).
  • Social – Need to fit in, (belonging, acceptance, self-esteem).

Different cultures place different priorities on certain needs. But identifying the audience needs is like finding the pressure point to push.

You could go deep on Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs (and vulnerabilities)….

But, just remember the following:

  • Critical needs are needed to satisfy life (food, air, water or shelter in a hostile environment).
  • Short-term needs could lead to critical needs (money, medical, etc) .
  • Long-term needs include freedoms (self expression, creativity, etc).

The majority of PSYOPS in war situations relate to safety. Providing safety to a threatened or at-risk population.

Target vulnerabilities can be exploited to influence.

Tip for young players: A line of persuasion that addresses more than one need will likely be more persuasive to the target. 😉

Output of Step 3 – Identify what your targets’ vulnerabilities are.

Step 4 – Access Your Target Audience

In Intelligence ‘access’ is everything.

When it comes to PSYOPS, you need to access your target to influence them.

Makes sense right? There’s no point in developing a television campaign if they don’t have TVs.

No point in writing a PSYOPS newspaper article if your target can’t read…

Russia’s 2016 memetic warfare campaign used internet culture to influence the US election.

PSYOPS leaflet provides a call to action to follow the Texas secessionist movement.

This PSYOPS campaign subtly furthers Russia’s strategic goals by pushing republican support (US election), and lends credibility to the annexation of Crimea. :O

Whether it’s online, in forums, or on Social Media (think TikTok if you’re targeting Gen Z’ers). Determine where your audience is for PSYOPS access.

This will tell you the type of product (the medium) you will need to use to best target your audience

Output of Step 4 – Find where your audience frequents, and go there!

Step 5 – Determine the PSYOPS Product

Whether your PSYOPS is a poster, leaflet, newspaper or video – the goal is to maximise exposure of the message to the target.

Here’s why I suggest using visual products for PSYOPS

  • Messages can be read in private;
  • The target can re-read for reinforcement;
  • Higher degree of credibility, and acceptance;
  • Printed matter can be passed from person to person;
  • Message cannot be changed unless physically altered; and,
  • Messages can be printed on almost any surface, including novelty items.
Taiwan’s PSYOPS unit weaponizes snacks. Source: Taiwan News

Taiwan’s PSYOPS Centre has developed “psychological warfare foods” to convince PLA soldiers to surrender in the event of a war.

Visual PSYOPS products:

  • posters;
  • flyers;
  • leaflets;
  • newspapers; and / or
  • magazines.

Operation Cornflakes was an Information Operation by the British targeting the morale of German Soldiers during WWII

The British disguised anti-Nazi propaganda to look like genuine German mail and placed it near the wreck of bombed trains with the expectation it would be picked up by the Nazis and introduced into the delivery system.

Audio and Audio-visual PSYOPS Products

PSYOPS can be broadcast via audio and audio-visual transmissions.

A PSYOPS radio station can provide more than just one message, including; news, entertainment or music all supporting the PSYOP message.

Advantages include; Speed, coverage (access), versatile medium (news, media, music) and most people can hear (even if they can’t read).

Types of Audio PSYOPS:

  • radio;
  • scripted interviews;
  • podcasts;
  • talk-back and opinion; and,
  • music.

Television

  • Movies
  • Television Shows
  • Advertisements
  • Music Videos

Print

  • Posters
  • Grafitti
  • Photos

Using Novelty Items for PSYOPS

  • T-shirts;
  • Key rings; or
  • Soccer balls ->

During Operation Enduring Freedom (2008) American  troops dropped soccer balls from low-flying Blackhawk helicopters to gain the trust and friendship of Afghan children.

Unfortunately the PSYOPS team didn’t realise the Saudi Arabian flag has the Shahada (Muslim declaration of faith) which states “There is no god but Allah, and Muhammad is his Messenger.”

Some of the target audience felt kicking the holy statement was heresy. Ooops. 😕

PSYOPS Online

Online PSYOPS provides the capability to reach thousands or (potentially millions) in minutes. And can include:

  • Email;
  • Forum posts;
  • Websites; and of course,
  • Social Media.
  • The Islamic State use social media along with their publication Dabiq as a propaganda machine to recruit and reinforce their ideas online.
  • The Russians were very successful in exploiting Social Media by sharing and promoting pro-Russian sentiment during the annexation of Crimea.
Pro-Russia images shared on Social Media during annexation of Crimea in 2015.

Output of Step 5 – Determine the best PSYOPS product for your audience and your objective.

Step 6 – Consider Risks and Constraints

Each culture (or sub-culture) is different.

So there are always themes to be stressed and others to be avoided in every PSYOPS operation.

This step ensures you consider the themes to be avoided or the limitations to the PSYOPS operation so it doesn’t blow up in your face.

PSYOPS considerations;

  • Violations of rules or law (don’t break the law),
  • Funding and resources limitations (time / money),
  • Restrictions on access and frequency (inability to go where your audience are) ,
  • Logistics (people / equipment); and
  • Timing.

Output from step 6 – Consider the risks and potential impacts of a poorly executed PSYOPS campaign.

Step 7 – Develop the PSYOPS product

Ok, so now it’s time to create the product.

Layout – PSYOPS layout is important.

  • Check the balance, see how it looks, and how to draws the eye around the page.

Colours – Colours have significance in many cultures.

  • Colours synonymous with the target may be used frequently. Eg. Canary yellow is popular in Vietnam, or green in the Republic of Ireland.
Vietnam PSYOPS – Peaceful on one side, war torn on the other.
  • The colour red to an American may signify danger; whereas, in communist countries, red may signify loyalty and patriotism.
Comrade Pepe used by online audience as Anti-Communist Propaganda.
  • Colours included in the national flags of countries are usually “safe” to use.
  • Colours can also have religious connotations. In the Muslim world green is universally “the colour of the faithful”. In the west, it’s often associated with health and nature (like in pharmacy signs).

Shape – Shapes may convey a message in themselves. Geometric shapes often have religious, symbolic or patriotic meanings.

‘Leaf leaflets’ dropped by the Germans prior to WWII.

Some propaganda experts believe this piece of PSYOPS did more to break France’s will to resist Germany than any other single piece of propaganda.

Keep it simple – Often a visually appealing, but simple message is the best approach.

What if you had the skills to turn everyday information into quality intelligence?
Discover exactly how Intelligence Analysts collect secrets, collate data and process information to develop timely and accurate Intelligence – here.

PSYOPS Product Principals

  • Applicability
  • Brevity
  • Simplicity
  • Repetition
  • Authoritativeness (tone)
  • Instructiveness (call to action)

PSYOPS Product Checklist –

  • Should this line of persuasion be used?
  • Are the symbols meaningful to the target?
  • Are the colours used offensive?
  • Is the material addressing the correct target?
  • Is the medium the most effective way to present the material (leaflet, TV, radio)?
  • Does each product in the series complement the others?

If possible, you might test on a smaller group to validate the idea and refine if required.

Six Tips to Create Killer PSYOPS Products

  • Tip 1: Use intense, emotionally appealing words associated with highly valued concepts and beliefs of the target.
  • Tip 2: Appeal to emotions such as love of country, desire for peace, freedom, glory, and honour.
  • Tip 3: Use transference to push positive or negative emotions onto an object, entity or person. It’s often used in politics a lot to transfer the blame.
  • Tip 4: Use culturally sensitive name-calling to arouse prejudices.  
  • Tip 5: Always use language familiar to the target.  
  • Tip 6: Any use of Symbols must be easily recognised by the target audience.

Output from Step 7 – Have a PSYOPS product developed (and don’t worry if it’s not perfect).

Step 8 – Distribution and Dissemination of PSYOPS

Go where your audience is and get the PSYOPS to them.

  • Internet (Blogs, Official Government Websites, Forums,)
  • Email
  • Social Media
  • Postal Mail (Snail Mail)
  • Radio Air Time
  • Television Air Time
  • Paid Advertisements
  • Through host nation providers (i.e. local police force or community groups)
  • Community Notice Boards etc.
  • Face-to-Face Dissemination

Output from Step 8 – Get your PSYOPS message to your Target Audience.

Step 9 – Measure the Effectiveness of Your PSYOPS Operation

Every Intelligence Operations should have success fail criteria.

PSYOP operations need indicators to assess the overall effectiveness of the mission.

Anti-Soviet Propaganda in Afghanistan shows a displaced woman and soviet bomb designed to sway public opinion.

Evaluating could take weeks (or longer) due to difficulties and complexity of determining cause and effect relationships with human behaviour.

In theatre, Intelligence teams use the ‘atmospherics’ to describe community and environmental sentiment.

PSYOPS evaluation can be measured through;

  • Surveys,
  • Questionnaires,
  • Interviews – (HUMINT sources can comment on community sentiment).
  • Focus groups

Impact indicators aid in determining the success of a PSYOPS operation

  • Positive impact indicators are actions, events, or behaviours favourable in orientation to the desired objective. i.e. more defectors.
  • A negative impact indicator is an event or a change opposite that desired by the PSYOP unit. i.e. fewer defectors.

Methodology for Assessing the Effectiveness of U.S. Military
Psychological Operations (external link).

Output from step 9 – Evaluate the impact of the PSYOPS campaign.

Step 10 – Monitor, Review and Update

With the other steps complete, the final thing to do is to monitor and review.

If the mission is deemed successful, based on the impact indcators, then it’s repeated to create more of the desired effect.

PSYOPS Successful? Fire-for-Effect!

Or, if not? Make changes, modify or manipulate to achieve a different outcome.

Output from Step 10 – Continue the PSYOPS campaign as long as you’re getting results. Update where necessary.

PSYOPS Summary From a Dead General

“All military action is intertwined with psychological forces and effects” (Clausewitz).

PSYOPS is our force multiplier used to get people to do things or stop doing things.

Want to know more about PSYOPS?

Want to know how you’re being manipulated online? PSYOPS: Could this meme be trying to kill you? (Using Memes for Influence Operations)

With more and more information and data available each day – the demand for skilled Intelligence Analysts has never been higher.

Intelligence agencies, businesses and governments need people like you to cut through the noise and turn everyday information into intelligence insights.

From Information to Intelligence

Intelligence101 Foundation Training Online Intelligence Course

Would you like to:

  • Develop a comprehensive knowledge of the Intelligence Cycle and the Foundations of Intelligence Analysis?
  • Learn how to make Intelligence collection plans and write Intelligence Briefs?
  • Understand Intelligence Collection methods including HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT, GEOINT, and OSINT?
  • Compile Strategic Analysis and deliver Oral Briefings?
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  • Develop your critical thinking and learnt to use various analytical methods?
  • Understand the impact of Intelligence in multi-disciplinary roles?
  • Then join us in our interactive Intelligence Training Course today.

Known Unknowns: Unpacking Information Requirements and the Direction phase of the Intelligence Cycle

By Ben Stark on November 19, 2020 0

Known Unknowns: Unpacking Information Requirements and the Direction phase of the Intelligence Cycle

The Intelligence Cycle comprises of five fundamental steps (direction, collection, analysis, assessment & dissemination).

The first step of the Intelligence Cycle is direction, it’s all about identifying your Information Requirements (IRs);

This article will unpack Information Requirements and how Intelligence planning works.

But first –

Intelligence Customers & Decision Makers

Important: Intelligence analysis is driven by the needs of the customer.

When we say ‘customer’, we’re talking about the individuals who benefit from our products and people are in a position to use the Intelligence provided.

Decision Makers typically include:

  • Military leaders and commanders (from Platoon Commanders to Generals);
  • Police or law enforcement;
  • Corporate executives, boards and the C-Suite;
  • Department heads and high-ranking bureaucrats; and
  • Politicians and Ministers.

Intelligence Cycle Step 1: Direction and Intelligence Planning

Commanders Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs)

CCIRs comprise of information a commander needs to make informed decisions.

These include:

  • Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs),
  • Friendly Force Information Requirements (FFIRs),
  • Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFI), &
  • Standing Information Requirements (SIRs).

Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFI)

Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs)

Information requirements on the enemy & environment required to accomplish the mission.

Good PIRs have some things in common:

  • They ask only one question;
  • They focus on a specific fact, event, or activity; and
  • They provide Intelligence required to support a single decision.

Friendly Force Information Requirements (FFIRs)

Information required for friendly forces.

Depending upon the circumstances, information on unit location, composition, readiness, personnel status and logistics status could become a friendly information requirement.

Friendly Force Information Requirements (FFIRs) Information required on friendly forces.

Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFIs)

Friendly information that must be protected from the enemy.

Key questions likely to be asked by adversary Intelligence about friendly intentions, capabilities and activities, that must be protected to avoid compromise.

Request for Information (RFIs)

Whenever we submit or send a request to another agency or organisation we typically refer to this as a request for information or RFI.

Standing Information Requirements (SIRs)

Standing Information Requirements (SIRs) are the information gaps that continue throughout a campaign or mission.

In essence, a standing IR is never satisfied and continue to be relevant.

Tip for Young Players

When receiving an Intelligence task, use this checklist;

  • Get the full picture! Develop your understanding of the situation.
  • Understand what Intelligence is needed and how it will be used.
  • Determine when the Intelligence is needed by (latest time)
  • How the Intelligence is to be provided (written, oral briefing, etc.)

Activity

Using the comments below, provide an example for each of the following in the comments below;

  • PIR (Enemy & Environment)
  • FFIR (Friendly forces)
  • EEFI (Friendly information requiring protection)
  • RFI (Request for information)
  • SIR (Standing information requirement)

Intelligence Failures: 3 Reasons How (and Why) Intelligence F#$K-ups Occur

By Ben Stark on May 9, 2020 0

Intelligence Failures

Intelligence Failures occur for three reasons –

1. Failure to process and analyse information correctly.

2. Failure to disseminate and share information.

3. Failure to act on intelligence.

Read these real-life case studies, understand intelligence failures, avoid the same mistakes.

CASE STUDY: Curveball (The Source Who Lied)

CASE STUDY: Curveball (The Source Who Lied)

Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi (aka Curveball) provided false and misleading information on Iraq’s production of biological and WMDs.

During the lead up to Operation Iraqi Freedom, Curveball made false claims about Saddam Hussain’s mobile weapons laboratories.

His falsified information was used as rationale for the military intervention into Iraq.

Interestingly, German Intelligence Service and the British Secret Intelligence Service questioned the authenticity of the claims.

They doubted his reliability due to inconsistencies with his testimony.

However, Curveball’s ‘information’ ultimately made its way to the White House and influenced President George Bush to invade Iraq in 2001.

Years later, Curveball’s information was proven to be falsified.

Lesson: Trusting Curveballs’ information was a critical intelligence failure to accurately evaluate the source and reliability of the information.

Notable Intelligence Failures

Operation Barbarossa (1941) – Stalin ignores Intelligence warnings that the Germans were preparing a surprise attack against Russia.

Singapore, 1942 – British Intelligence believed the Japanese wouldn’t use tanks in the jungle…Next minute, everyone is eating Raman.

Yom Kippur, 1973. Israel dismissed Intelligence indicating Egypt were planning an offensive.


The Falkland Islands, 1982. British Intelligence didn’t think the Argentinians would launch an assault to recapture the Falklands…

Falkland Islands WAr
Falkland Islands War – Summarised

Pearl Harbor (1941). Americans were caught by surprise when the Japanese bombed the Navy base Pearl Harbor in 1941.

So How (and Why) Do Intelligence Failures Occur?

There’s a bunch of theory on this topic. But I’ve distilled Intelligence Failures down to the following three reasons:

  • Failure to process and analyse information correctly.
  • Failure to disseminate and share information.
  • Failure to act on intelligence.

#1. Failure to Process and Analyse Information

More often than not, Intelligence failures occur from an inability to process intelligence accurately!

Why?

  • Selective Information. Sometimes analysts refuse to accept information that contradicts preconceived opinions,  disregarding information that doesn’t fit a preferred narrative. This is the cardinal sin of Intelligence.
  • Denial or Avoidance. Sometimes analysts refuse to deal with unpleasant facts either by denying their existence or avoiding action needed to deal with it.
  • Groupthink. Sometimes, Often Intelligence Analysts accept the opinions of others (usually superiors) without checking assumptions are correct first.
  • Selective Vision. Trying to make a situation fit a preconceived conclusion.
  • One Track Mind. Refusal to recognise any need for new thinking. People tend to find it difficult to reverse a decision once its made (even if it was a mistake).
  • Over Complicating Matters. Ignoring the simplest explanation or solution in favour of an overly complex or less likely one. Tip. Remember Occam’s Razor!
  • Not My Idea. Stupid as it sounds, I’ve seen analysts dismiss an idea just because someone else thought of it.

Why do intelligence failures happen

99 Problems but collection aint’ one

Today I would say Intelligence collection is not an issue – We literally have the world’s information at our fingertips.

In fact, we have more information than we know what to do with.

This creates its own problems for Intelligence Analysts…

#2. Failure to Disseminate and Share Information

If Intelligence exists to provide an advantage over our adversary; what’s the point of having solid Intel if you don’t tell anyone?

You gotta get it out there!

This is the second reason for Intelligence failures. Failure to ship your Intel!

Look, I get it – there’s a fine line between sharing information and keeping secrets right…

Need to Know Vs. Need to Share.

Too much sharing and nothing remains secret.

Too many secrets and you wake up to a Japanese aerial raid.

So, when it comes to intelligence, there needs to be a balance.

Knowledge is power, and people like to hoard their information –

Individual analysts like to be the ones with the info. It makes them feel indispensable.

Similarly, Intelligence organisations, aren’t much better. Intelligence agencies will often hoard information to appear more effective (and protect their operational budgets).

Problem: Keep too many secrets, people die. 🙁

Fix: Foster a culture of information sharing and declassifying information for wider dissemination. 😀

Or don’t. Whatever.

Intelligence Failures Explained

#3. Failure to Act.

The third cause for Intelligence Failures is a failure to act on Intelligence provided.

My definition of intelligence is ‘processed information for action’ and so if no action is taken from your intel, there’s literally no reason for it to exist.

If policymakers act independently of intelligence advice, and the operations team plan in isolation you’ll end up with an intelligence failure.

Prior to Operation Barbarosa (1941) Stalin chose to be his own Intelligence Analyst and ignored the warnings that Hitlers Nazi’s were planning an invasion into the USSR.

Intel failures

Super Valid Point. When I say ‘failure to act’, I’m saying intelligence failures occur when intelligence is ignored. Choosing to do nothing is fine because it’s a choice.

Self-Interest

People often put their own self-interest ahead of making a tough call or putting their neck on the line.

It’s often easier to hide behind average intelligence rather than actually making the call.

Call to action[able] Intelligence

Let this lesson into Intelligence Failures be a straight-up call to action for Intelligence professionals; if your advice isn’t actionable, what’s the point? 

Intelligence Failures

Activity –

Can you think of any other historical Intelligence Failures? Share with the group below! Determine the issue, and post it in the comments below.

“I Need You To Tell Me What’s Going On Here”: Analyse the Situation and Provide a Quick Assessment

By Ben Stark on May 1, 2020 0

Criminal Intelligence Analysis Scenario - Free Online Intelligence Training

Your Director Needs A Quick Assessment Before Her 9am Meeting –

Situation: You are a Criminal Intelligence Analyst working in the Avon and Somerset Police, located in Bristol UK.

Free Intelligence Training Scenario

You’ve been assigned to the Criminal Intelligence Branch (C.I.B) – with an operational focus on Organised Crime in Bristol, UK.

It’s 8:05am and you’ve just arrived in the office carrying a fresh coffee and toasted ham and cheese croissant.

But before you get to put the flaky-pastry to your mouth, the C.I.B Director needs to see you in her office…

…you take a quick swig of your coffee, grab your notebook and pen and head in.

“I need you to tell me what’s going on here”

She hands you a file containing a mix-mash of Police reporting, and tells you she needs a quick assessment before her meeting with the Commissioner at 9am.

This Criminal Group are up to something, and we need to know what it is –

I need you to read into the problem and provide me a quick summary.

Now to get down to business…. (click image for PDF Scenario).

Crimson Tide Criminal Intelligence File

Analyse the Crimson Tide Organised Criminal Syndicate

  • You have less than 1 hour to read the available information and provide a quick assessment to the chief.
  • She needs to know the bottom line up front – what are they doing in Bristol?
  • Provide her a summary she can take to the Commissioner
  • Put your response in the comments below.
  • Provide her with a summary of the reporting and assessment of what you think is going on.
  • Make a recommendation for further Intelligence Collection

Task

Review the information and using the comments section below, provide an quick assessment to inform your Director what is going on?

Rules

  • This is a made-up scenario for exercise purposes only.
  • Use what you’ve been given – there’s enough to go off.
  • Feel free to ask questions, put in collection requests and post images including link diagrams, timelines etc.
  • The information is in no particular order.
  • Let me know if you have any issues – post in the comments or email me ben@intelligence101.com

Do you speak Spanish? Our Intelligence Training Scenario has been translated by our friends over at AETAD for our Spanish audience Check it out here – Escenario de Crimson Tide Intelligence (traducción al español).

Also, we know it’s not easy to find real-world Intelligence examples online. That’s why we develop these free scenarios – to help you think critically. So if you want to step up your intel game, check out our (inexpensive) online intelligence training today. It’s packed full of real life examples.

7 Opportunities for Criminal Intelligence Professionals During the COIVD-19 Crisis

By Ben Stark on April 23, 2020 0

Criminal Intelligence Opportunities During the COIVD- Crisis.

COVID-19 has got everyone out of the box.

Countries remain in lockdown,

Hospitals are running out of beds,

And PPE stocks are diminishing quickly.

Worst still, no one really knows when it’s all going to end.

But are we forgetting who the real victims are in this crisis..?

The drug dealers!

Do you know how hard it is to find drugs at the moment?

And with everyone staying at home, it’s even harder for local junkies to find a house to break into!

Jeez. When is all going to end?

Local drug dealers just want everything to go back to normal.

The humanity.

But, this COVID-19 crisis provides some unique opportunities for criminal intelligence analysts and police.

Here, in a strange post, are my thoughts on Intelligence Opportunities provided by the COVID-19 crisis.

Seven ways Criminal Intelligence Professionals can Capitalise on the COIVD-19 Crisis:

**Look, I know it’s macabre and I’m sorry if you’re affected, but if you work in the Intelligence biz, you’ll know it’s important to capitalise on opportunities when you get’em.

…and drugs kill also.

#1. Increased ability to get covert police or undercover agents into criminal syndicates.

Goes without saying, but the vetting process and assess restrictions to organised criminal groups are likely to be just as affected as the rest of us.

Police and criminal intelligence could capitalise by developing relationships through online contact, social networks, and group chats which might have less restrictive screening and vetting given the current climate.

#2. Opportunity to focus on alternative trafficking methods

Ok, so people can’t meet right? So how do you get your drugs in or move them around?

I’m thinking through the postal service, and / or via freight…

Police and criminal intelligence should focus resources and attention on key movement / trafficking methods.

International post is likely to be one of the most likely importation methods in this current climate.

(hot tip: look for the packages with no return address…;0)

#3. Opportunities to interdict large stockpiles of drugs

It’s widely reported that large amounts of drugs are manufactured in backwater parts of Asia and the Middle East (ie. Golden Triangle or Badlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan).

I expect drug production is likely to continue while the ability to export and move drugs is limited.

This provides an opportunity for agencies with international reach to interdict and disrupt larger than average production lines.

BLUF: Target the well known international syndicates offshore before wholesale importation resumes!

#4. Old cooks and professionals

Given the reduction in the ability to traffic drugs domestically – old drug cooks are likely to be recruited back into the game.

Criminal task forces should pay particular attention to those they know to be proficient with the manufacture of drugs as demand is likely to entice cooks to return to the kitchen.

#5. Same for precursors 

Without the ability to import and move drugs as easily, the demand to make / manufacture drugs is likely to increase in domestic markets.

The cost for precursor chemicals is likely to increase the risk to pharmacies.

And Criminals are likely to make shittier versions of drugs also.

Precursors for fentanyl etc and other cheap drugs are also likely to be in higher demand.

Monitoring the price of precursor chemicals will provide intelligence about the demand and risk to the community.

#6. Online Sales

With more people at home, online drug dealing is likely to increase.

Low-level criminals are likely to use FB Messenger, WhatsApp, or Signal for ‘street-level dealing’.

Enterprise set-ups are likely to see greater traffic on Tor.

Tech Savvy Police and Intelligence could capitalise on the increased online drug trade by developing false personas, or creating an online shopfront to collect intelligence.

#7. Source Meets

The ability to communicate with sources in person will be restricted.

This means agents who need to contact or meet with sources will need to do so in novel ways (excuse the pun). This provides increased potential for exposure.

Agencies should focus on best ways to legitimise meetups consistent with everyday COVID-19 pattern of life, i.e. grocery shops.

If all else fails, you could just try what the Polish Police did, and ask all criminals to “please stop all criminal activities until further notice”

Intelligence 101 COVID-19 Intelligence Assessment
‘Please stop all crime’: Polish police plea amid COVID-19 workload”. Euronews. 20 March 2020.

Other criminal elements impacted by COVID-19 include:

  • Human trafficking is likely to be limited by the cross border restrictions, and perhaps easier to police?
  • OPSEC. The increase of people working from home will mean there’s increased level of security needed. Consider your OPSEC if your work would otherwise be working in a windowless room.

If you can think of some novel ways Criminal Intelligence and / or Police can capitalise on the current situation, post in the comments below.

The most unique idea gets a prize, and who knows, might even get picked up by INTERPOL.

S.A.L.U.T.E. Reports; Use this simple (and effective) technique when discussing the enemy or threat

By Ben Stark on March 6, 2020 0

SALUTE REPORTS - Intelligence Reports

SALUTE Reports allow Intelligence Analysts to quickly assess important aspects of an enemy force.

[Read more…] about S.A.L.U.T.E. Reports; Use this simple (and effective) technique when discussing the enemy or threat

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  • “I Need You To Tell Me What’s Going On Here”: Analyse the Situation and Provide a Quick Assessment
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